Publications

Published (group members and visiting group researchers are indicated in bold font; see below for papers under review):

  1. Yin, J. and Slater, L. (2022 Research Briefing, in press), Increase in drought–heatwave events worsens socioeconomic productivity and carbon uptake, Nature Sustainability
  2. Yin, J., Gentine, P., Slater, L., Gu, L., Pokhrel, Y., Hanasaki, N., Guo, S., Xiong, L., Schlenker, W. (2022, in press) Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought-heatwave events, Nature Sustainability
  3. Zhang, B., Wang, S., Moradkhani, H., Slater, L. and Liu, J. (2022) A vine copula-based ensemble projection of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves at sub-daily to multi-day time scales, Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2022WR032658
  4. Fan, K., Slater, L.J., Zhang, Q., Sheffield, J., Gentine, P., Sun, S., Wu, W. (2022) Climate warming accelerates surface soil moisture drying in the Yellow River Basin, Journal of Hydrology
  5. Li, C., Gu, X., Slater, L.J., Liu, J., Li, J., Zhang, X., Kong, D. (2022) Urbanization-induced increases in heavy precipitation are magnified by moist heatwaves in an urban agglomeration of East China, Journal of Climate
  6. Wang, L., Nie, R., Slater, L.J., Xu, Z., Guan, D., Yang, Y., Education can improve response to flash floods (2022 – letter), Science 
  7. Yin, J., Slater, L., Gu, L., Liao, Z., Guo, S., Gentine, P. (2022), Global Increases in Lethal Compound Heat Stress- Hydrological Drought Hazards under Climate Change, Geophysical Research Letters
  8. Slater, L.J., Huntingford, C., Pywell, R.F., Redhead, J.W., Kendon, E.J., (2022), Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change, Earth System Dynamics
  9. Han, S., Slater, L.J., Wilby, R.L., Faulkner, D. (2022), Contribution of Urbanisation to Non-stationary River Flow in the UK. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128417
  10. Wang, L., Gu, X., Gulakhmadov, A., Li, J., Slater, L., Zhang, Q., Luo, M., Ren, G., Kong, D. , Lai, Y., Liu, J. (2022), An analysis of translation distance of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0030.1
  11. Chai, Y., Yue, Y., Slater, L.J., Yin, J., Borthwick, A., Chen, T., Wang, G. (2022), Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia, Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7
  12. Liu, J., Feng, X., Gu, X., Zhang, J., Slater, L.J., Kong, D. (2022), Detection and attribution of human influence on the global diurnal temperature range decline, Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2021GL097155
  13. Feng, S., Gu, X., Luo, S., Liu, R., Gulakhmadov, A., Slater, L.J., Li, J., Zhang, X., Kong, D. (2022). Greenhouse gas emissions drive global dryland expansion but not spatial patterns of change in aridification. Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0103.1
  14. Li, C., Min, R., Gu, X., Gulakhmadov, A., Luo, S., Liu, R., Slater, L.J., Xie, F., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, Y. (2022), Substantial increase in heavy precipitation events preceded by moist heatwaves over China during 1961–2019. Frontiers in Environmental Science. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.951392
  15. Anderson, B., Slater, L., Dadson, S., Blum, A., Prosdocimi, I. (2022) Statistical attribution of the influence of urban and tree cover change on streamflow: a comparison of large sample statistical approaches. Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2021WR030742
  16. Phillips, C. B., Masteller, C., Slater, L., Dunne, K., Francalanci, S., Lanzoni, S., Merritts, D., Lajeunesse, E., Jerolmack., D. J. (2022) Threshold constraints on the size, shape and stability of alluvial rivers. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00282-z
  17. Tosunoglu, F., Slater, L.J. (2022) Decreasing flood hazard evaluated in Turkey using non-stationary models. River Research and Applications. doi:10.1002/rra.3998
  18. Khouakhi, A., Driouech, F., Slater, L., Waine, T., Chafki, O., Chehbouni, A., Raji, O. (2022) Atmospheric rivers and associated extreme rainfall over Morocco. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.7676
  19. Kelder, T., Marjoribanks, T., Slater, L., Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R., Wagemann, J., Dunstone, N. (2022) An open workflow to gain insights about low-likelihood high impact weather events from initialised predictions. For full details on the workflow, see https://unseen-open.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Whats-unseen.html. doi:10.1002/met.2065 Meteorological Applications
  20. Gu, L., Chen, J., Yin, J., Slater, L., Wang, H-M., Guo, Q., Feng, M., Qin, H., Zhao, T. (2022) Global Increases in Compound Flood-Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2022GL097726.
  21. Lees, T., Reece, S., Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Klotz, D., De Bruijn, J., Kumar Sahu, R., Greve, P., Slater, L.J., Dadson, S. (2022) Hydrological Concept Formation inside Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
  22. Guan, Y., Gu, X., Slater, L.J., Li, L., Kong, D., Liu, J., Zhang, X., Yan, X. (2022) Tracing anomalies in moisture recycling and transport to two record-breaking droughts over the Mid-to-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. Journal of Hydrology [free access here until 28 May]
  23. Kelder, T., Wanders, N., van der Wiel, K., Marjoribanks, T., Slater, L., Wilby, R.L., Prudhomme, C. (2022) Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations – are they unseen or unrealistic? Environmental Research Letters.
  24. Yu, X., Gu, X., Kong, D., Zhang, Q., Cao, Q., Slater, L., Ren, G., Luo, M., Li, J., Liu, J., Cheng, J., Li, Y. (2022) Asymmetrical shift toward less light and more heavy precipitation in an urban agglomeration of East China: Intensification by urbanization. Geophysical Research Letters.
  25. Buechel, M., Slater, L.J., Dadson, S. (2022) Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios. Communications Earth & Environment. doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00334-0
  26. Brunner, M.I. and Slater, L.J. (2022) Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. doi:10.5194/hess-2021-345. 
  27. Kowal, K., Slater, L.J., Van Loon, A.F., Birkel, C. (2022) SEAS5 Skilfully Predicts Late Wet-Season Precipitation in Central American Dry Corridor Excelling in Costa Rica and Nicaragua. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.7514
  28. Li, C., Gu, X., Bai, W., Slater, L.J., Li, J., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, Y. (2021) Asymmetric response of short- and long-duration dry spells to warming during the warm-rain season over Eastern Monsoon China. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127114
  29. Lees, T., Buechel, M., Anderson, B., Slater, L., Reece, S., Coxon, G., and Dadson, S. (2021) Benchmarking Data-Driven Rainfall-Runoff Models in Great Britain: A comparison of LSTM-based models with four lumped conceptual models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021
  30. Green, D., O’Donnell, E., Johnson, M., Slater, L.J., Thorne, C., Zheng, S., Ka Shun Chan, F. (2021) Green infrastructure: the future of urban flood risk management? WIREs Water. doi:10.1002/wat2.1560
  31. Dwyer, G.K., Cummings, C.R., Rice, S. P., Lancaster, J., Downes, B., Slater, L., Lester, R.E. (2021) Using fractals to describe ecologically relevant patterns in distributions of large rocks in streams. Water Resources Research, 57(7), e2021WR029796. doi:10.1029/2021WR029796
  32. Slater L.J., Anderson A., Buechel M., Dadson S., Han S., Harrigan S., Kelder T., Kowal K., Lees T., Matthews T., Murphy C., Wilby R.L. (2021) Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021
  33. Xiong, J., Yin, J., Guo, S., Slater, L. (2021) Continuity of terrestrial water storage variability and trends across mainland China monitored by the GRACE and GRACE-Follow on satellites. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126308
  34. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Archfield, S., Faulkner, D., Lamb, R., Khouakhi A., Yin, J. (2021) Global changes in 20-year, 50-year and 100-year river floods. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1029/2020GL091824 
  35. Lancaster, J., Rice, S., Slater, L.J., Lester, R.E., Downes, B.J. (2021) Hydrological controls on oviposition habitat are associated with egg-laying phenology of some caddisflies. Freshwater Biology. doi: 10.1111/fwb.13718
  36. Brunner, M., Slater, L.J., Tallaksen, L., Clark, M. (2021) Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review. WIREs Water. doi:10.1002/wat2.1520 
  37. Kelder, T., Müller, M., Slater, L.J., Marjoribanks, T, Wilby, R., Prudhomme, C., Bohlinger, P., Ferranti, L., Nipen, T. (2020) Using UNSEEN trends to detect decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes. Climate and Atmospheric Science
  38. Piégay, H., Arnaud, F., Belletti, B., Bertrand, M., Bizzi, S., Carbonneau, P., Dufour, S., Liebault, F., Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Slater, L.J. (2020), Remotely Sensed Rivers in the Anthropocene: State of the Art and Prospects. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
  39. Slater, L.J., Thirel, G., Harrigan, S., Delaigue, O., Hurley, A., Khouakhi, A., Prodoscimi, I., Vitolo, C., and Smith, K. (2019) Using R in hydrology: a review of recent developments and future directions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 2939-2963, doi: 10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019
  40. Slater, L.J., Khouakhi, A., Wilby, R. (2019) River channel conveyance capacity adjusts to modes of climate variability  Scientific Reports, 9:12619, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-48782-1
  41. Courty, L., Wilby, R., Hillier, J., Slater, L.J. (2019) Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at the global scale. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab370a
  42. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Bradley, A., Vecchi G. (2019) A dynamical statistical framework for seasonal streamflow forecasting in an agricultural watershed.  Climate Dynamics, 53(12), 7429-7445, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3794-7
  43. Khouakhi, A., Villarini, G., Zhang, W., Slater, L. (2019) Seasonal predictability of high sea level frequency from Nino3.4 along the U.S. West coast. Advances in Water Resources. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.07.007
  44. Berghuijs, W., Harrigan, s., Molnar, P., Slater, L. , Kirchner, J., (2019)  The relative importance of different flood-generating mechanisms across Europe. Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2019WR024841
  45. Neri, A., Villarini, G., Slater, L.J., Napolitano, F. (2019) On the statistical attribution of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest. Advances in Water Resources, 127(5), 225-236, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.03.019
  46. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Bradley, A. (2019) Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA. Climate Dynamics. 53(12), pp. 7381–7396. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3286-1
  47. Neri, A., Villarini, G., Salvi, K.A., Slater, L.J. and Napolitano, F. (2019) On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest.  International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.5915
  48. Hillier, J. et al. (2019) Demystifying academics to enhance university–business collaborations in environmental science. Geoscience Communication, 2, 1-23; doi:10.5194/gc-2-1-2019
  49. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2018) Enhancing the predictability of seasonal streamflow with a statistical dynamical approach. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2018GL077945
  50. Lutz, S., Popp, A., van Emmerik, T., Gleeson, T., Kalaugher, L., Möbius, K., Mudde, T., Walton, B., Hut, R., Savenije, H., Slater, L.J., Solcerova, A., Stoof, C. and Zink, M. (2018) HESS Opinions: Science in today’s media landscape – challenges and lessons from hydrologists and journalists. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(7).
  51. Villarini, G., Slater, L.J. (2018) Examination of Changes in Annual Maximum Gage Height in the Continental United States Using Quantile Regression. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (ASCE), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001620
  52. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2017) Evaluating the drivers of seasonal streamflow rates in the U.S. Midwest, Water (MDPI). 9, 695; doi:10.3390/w9090695. 
  53. Slater, L.J., Wilby, R.L. (2017) Measuring the changing pulse of rivers (Perspective article), Science, 357(6351), pp. 552, doi:10.1126/science.aao2441. Reprint.
  54. Zhang, W., Villarini, G., Slater, L.J., Vecchi, G., Bradley, A.A. (2017) Improved ENSO Forecasting using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0073.1.
  55. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Bradley, A.A. (2017) Weighting of NMME temperature and precipitation forecasts across Europe, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.029
  56. Clubb, F.J., Mudd, S.M., Milodowski, D.T, Valters, D.A, Slater, L.J., Hurst, M.D., and Limaye, A.B.S. (2017) Geomorphometric delineation of floodplains and terraces from slope and channel relief thresholds, Earth Surface Dynamics, 5(3), pp.369-385. doi:10.5194/esurf-2017-21.
  57. Villarini, G., Slater, L.J. (2017) Climatology of flooding in the United States, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.123 
  58. Wilby, R.L., Clifford, N.J., De Luca, P., Harrigan, S., Hillier, J.K., Hodgkins, R., Johnson, M.F., Matthews, T.K.R., Murphy, C., Noone, S.J., Parry, S., Prudhomme, C., Rice, S.P., Slater, L.J., Smith, K.A., Wood, P.J. (2017) The “dirty dozen” of freshwater science: Detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIREs) Water, 4:e1209. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1209
  59. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2016) On the impact of gaps on trend detection in extreme streamflow time series, International Journal of Climatology. ISSN: 1097-0088. doi: 10.1002/joc.4954.
  60. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2016) Recent trends in U.S. flood risk, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016. 43(24), pp.12, 428-12,436, doi: 10.1002/2016GL071199. Featured Research Spotlight in Eos.
  61. Slater L.J. (2016) To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales? Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 41(8), pp.1115-1128, ISSN: 0197-9337. Special Issue Stormy Geomorphology, doi: 10.1002/esp.3927
  62. Slater, L.J. (2015) Changing Channels (Outreach article), Planet Earth. Html version. pp.22-23, ISSN: 1479-2605.
  63. Slater, L.J., Singer, M.B., Kirchner J.W. (2015) Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, 42(2), pp.370-376, ISSN: 0094-8276. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062482. PDF. html. Supplementary material. Media attention: AGUniverse Publication Highlight.
  64. Clubb, F.J., Mudd S.M., Milodowski D.T., Hurst M.D., Slater L.J. (2014) Objective extraction of channel heads from high resolution topographic data, Water Resources Research. 50(5), pp.4283-4304.  doi: 10.1002/2013WR015167.
  65. Slater, L. J. and Singer, M.B. (2013) Imprint of climate and climate change in alluvial riverbeds: Continental United States, 1950-2011, Geology, 41(5), pp.595-598, ISSN: 0091-7613. doi:10.1130/G34070.1 Prize for the best student-led peer-reviewed journal article for 2013.  University of St Andrews Press Release
  66. Piégay, H., Alber, A., Slater, L.J., and Bourdin, L. (2009) Census and typology of braided rivers in the French Alps, Aquatic Sciences, 71(3), 371–388, doi:10.1007/s00027-009-9220-4 (French MSc thesis, Slater, L.J. (2007) Caractérisation des rivières en tresses françaises, ENS-Lyon)

Manuscripts submitted, under review, or in revision

  1. Gu, L., Yin, J., Slater, L., Chen, J., Do, H., Wang, H-M., Chen, L., Jiang, Z., Zhao, T. Intensification of global hydrological droughts under anthropogenic climate warming.
  2. Chai, Y., Yue, Y., Slater, L., Miao, C. Constrained CMIP6 projections reveal an acceleration of the global water cycle.
  3. Gu, L., Yin, J., Gentine, P., Guo, S., Wang, H-M., Slater, L.J., Sullivan, S., Zscheischler, J., Zhou, J., Chen, J., Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics.
  4. Chai, Y., Berghuijs, W.R., Yue, Y., Slater, L., Dolman, H. Faster future global snow losses revealed by constrained CMIP6 projections.
  5. Chai, Y., Wang, G., Berghuijs, W.R., Li, Y., Yang, Y., Zhu, B., Yu, L., Slater, L.J., Global decline of CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation water use efficiency.
  6. Buckley, J., Hodge, R.A., Slater, L.J., Hammond, B. Bedrock rivers are steep and wide: Discharge, lithological and uplift controls on river geometry across the USA.
  7. Wang, L., Gu, X., Slater, L., Li, J., Kong, D., Zhang, X., Liu, J. Phase shifts of the PDO and AMO alter the translation distance of global tropical cyclones.
  8. Moulds, S., Slater, L., Dunstone, N., Smith, D. Skillful decadal UK flood prediction (in revision).
  9. Chai, Y., Yue, Y., Borthwick, A., Wang, Y., Miao, C., Slater, L., She, D., Feng, D., Zhao, X., Hu, Y. Revegetation of the Earth’s land surface maintains water resource availability but decreases carbon sequestration potential.
  10. Wei, L., Gu, X., Slater, L., Lai, Y., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, J., Zhang, X. Heavier precipitation in response to longer-lasting tropical cyclones and rapid urbanization over the Yangtze River Delta of eastern China.
  11. Wang, L., Gu, X., Slater, L., Lai, Y., Zhang, X., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, J. Indirect and direct impacts of Typhoon In-Fa (2021) on heavy precipitation in inland and coastal areas of China: Synoptic-scale environments and return period analysis (in revision).
  12. Li, X., Long, D., Slater, L., Moulds, S., Shahid, M., Han, P., Zhao, F. Soil Moisture to Runoff (SM2R): A data-driven model for runoff estimation across poorly gauged Asian water towers based on soil moisture dynamics.
  13. Kang, S., Yin, J., Gu, L., Yang, Y., Liu, D., Slater, L. Observation-constrained projection of bivariate flood characteristics and socioeconomic exposure in China.
  14. Han, P., Long, D., Zhao, F., Slater, L. Response of two glaciers of different types on the Tibetan Plateau to climate change through 2100 using a hybrid modelling approach suited to data-sparse regions.
  15. Luo, S., Gu, X., Guan, Y., Slater, L., Kong, D., Liu, J., Zhang, X. Hot weather amplifies the urban dry island effect, especially in wetter climates.
  16. Slater, L., Arnal, L., Boucher, M.-A., Chang, A. Y.-Y., Moulds, S., Murphy, C., Nearing, G., Shalev, G., Shen, C., Speight, L., Villarini, G., Wilby, R. L., Wood, A., and Zappa, M.: Hybrid forecasting: using statistics and machine learning to integrate predictions from dynamical models, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-334, 2022.
  17. Kowal, K., Slater, L.J., López, A.G., Van Loon, A.F., A comparison of seasonal rainfall forecasts over Central America including dynamic and hybrid approaches from C3S and NMME.