Publications

Published (group members and visiting group researchers are indicated in bold font; see below for papers under review):

  1. Gu, L., Yin, J., Gentine, P., Wang, H-M., Slater, L.J., Sullivan, S., Chen, J., Zscheischler, J., Guo, S. (accepted, in press). Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics. Nature Communications
  2. Slater, L., Arnal, L., Boucher, M.-A., Chang, A. Y.-Y., Moulds, S., Murphy, C., Nearing, G., Shalev, G., Shen, C., Speight, L., Villarini, G., Wilby, R. L., Wood, A., and Zappa, M. (2023) Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. doi:10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023
  3. Han, P., Long, D., Zhao, F., Slater, L. (2023) Response of two glaciers in different climate settings of the Tibetan Plateau to climate change through year 2100 using a hybrid modelling approach. Water Resources Research. doi: 10.1029/2022WR033618
  4. Berghuijs, W. and Slater, L. (2023) Groundwater shapes North American river floods, Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acbecc
  5. Li, X., Long, D., Slater, L., Moulds, S.,  Shahid, M., Han, P., Zhao, F. (2023) Soil Moisture to Runoff (SM2R): A data-driven model for runoff estimation across poorly gauged Asian water towers based on soil moisture dynamics, Water Resources Research. doi: 10.1029/2022WR033597
  6. Wang, L., Gu, X., Slater, L., Li, J., Kong, D., Zhang, X., Liu, J. (2023) Phase shifts of the PDO and AMO alter the translation distance of global tropical cyclones. Earth’s Future. doi:10.1029/2022EF003079
  7. Yin, J., Gentine, P., Slater, L., Gu, L., Pokhrel, Y., Hanasaki, N., Guo, S., Xiong, L., Schlenker, W. (2023) Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought-heatwave events, Nature Sustainability. doi:10.1038/s41893-022-01024-1. Press release on Oxford University’s website.
  8. Yin, J. and Slater, L. (2023), Increase in drought–heatwave events worsens socioeconomic productivity and carbon uptake, Nature Sustainability Research Briefing. doi:10.1038/s41893-022-01026-z
  9. Kowal, K., Slater, L., López, A.G., Van Loon, A.F. (2023) A comparison of seasonal rainfall forecasts over Central America using dynamic and hybrid approaches from C3S and NMME. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.7969
  10. Moulds, S., Slater, L., Dunstone, N., Smith, D. (2023) Skillful decadal flood prediction, Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2022GL100650
  11. Gu, L., Yin, J., Slater, L., Chen, J., Do, H., Wang, H-M., Chen, L., Jiang, Z., Zhao, T.  (2022) Intensification of global hydrological droughts under anthropogenic climate warming. Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2022WR032997
  12. Zhang, B., Wang, S., Moradkhani, H., Slater, L. and Liu, J. (2022) A vine copula-based ensemble projection of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves at sub-daily to multi-day time scales, Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2022WR032658
  13. Fan, K., Slater, L.J., Zhang, Q., Sheffield, J., Gentine, P., Sun, S., Wu, W. (2022) Climate warming accelerates surface soil moisture drying in the Yellow River Basin, Journal of Hydrology
  14. Li, C., Gu, X., Slater, L.J., Liu, J., Li, J., Zhang, X., Kong, D. (2022) Urbanization-induced increases in heavy precipitation are magnified by moist heatwaves in an urban agglomeration of East China, Journal of Climate
  15. Wang, L., Nie, R., Slater, L.J., Xu, Z., Guan, D., Yang, Y., Education can improve response to flash floods (2022 – letter), Science 
  16. Yin, J., Slater, L., Gu, L., Liao, Z., Guo, S., Gentine, P. (2022), Global Increases in Lethal Compound Heat Stress- Hydrological Drought Hazards under Climate Change, Geophysical Research Letters
  17. Slater, L.J., Huntingford, C., Pywell, R.F., Redhead, J.W., Kendon, E.J., (2022), Resilience of UK crop yields to compound climate change, Earth System Dynamics
  18. Han, S., Slater, L.J., Wilby, R.L., Faulkner, D. (2022), Contribution of Urbanisation to Non-stationary River Flow in the UK. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128417
  19. Wang, L., Gu, X., Gulakhmadov, A., Li, J., Slater, L., Zhang, Q., Luo, M., Ren, G., Kong, D. , Lai, Y., Liu, J. (2022), An analysis of translation distance of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0030.1
  20. Chai, Y., Yue, Y., Slater, L.J., Yin, J., Borthwick, A., Chen, T., Wang, G. (2022), Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia, Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31782-7
  21. Liu, J., Feng, X., Gu, X., Zhang, J., Slater, L.J., Kong, D. (2022), Detection and attribution of human influence on the global diurnal temperature range decline, Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2021GL097155
  22. Feng, S., Gu, X., Luo, S., Liu, R., Gulakhmadov, A., Slater, L.J., Li, J., Zhang, X., Kong, D. (2022). Greenhouse gas emissions drive global dryland expansion but not spatial patterns of change in aridification. Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0103.1
  23. Li, C., Min, R., Gu, X., Gulakhmadov, A., Luo, S., Liu, R., Slater, L.J., Xie, F., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, Y. (2022), Substantial increase in heavy precipitation events preceded by moist heatwaves over China during 1961–2019. Frontiers in Environmental Science. doi:10.3389/fenvs.2022.951392
  24. Anderson, B., Slater, L., Dadson, S., Blum, A., Prosdocimi, I. (2022) Statistical attribution of the influence of urban and tree cover change on streamflow: a comparison of large sample statistical approaches. Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2021WR030742
  25. Phillips, C. B., Masteller, C., Slater, L., Dunne, K., Francalanci, S., Lanzoni, S., Merritts, D., Lajeunesse, E., Jerolmack., D. J. (2022) Threshold constraints on the size, shape and stability of alluvial rivers. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00282-z
  26. Tosunoglu, F., Slater, L.J. (2022) Decreasing flood hazard evaluated in Turkey using non-stationary models. River Research and Applications. doi:10.1002/rra.3998
  27. Khouakhi, A., Driouech, F., Slater, L., Waine, T., Chafki, O., Chehbouni, A., Raji, O. (2022) Atmospheric rivers and associated extreme rainfall over Morocco. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.7676
  28. Kelder, T., Marjoribanks, T., Slater, L., Prudhomme, C., Wilby, R., Wagemann, J., Dunstone, N. (2022) An open workflow to gain insights about low-likelihood high impact weather events from initialised predictions. For full details on the workflow, see https://unseen-open.readthedocs.io/en/latest/Whats-unseen.html. doi:10.1002/met.2065 Meteorological Applications
  29. Gu, L., Chen, J., Yin, J., Slater, L., Wang, H-M., Guo, Q., Feng, M., Qin, H., Zhao, T. (2022) Global Increases in Compound Flood-Hot Extreme Hazards Under Climate Warming. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2022GL097726.
  30. Lees, T., Reece, S., Kratzert, F., Gauch, M., Klotz, D., De Bruijn, J., Kumar Sahu, R., Greve, P., Slater, L.J., Dadson, S. (2022) Hydrological Concept Formation inside Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
  31. Guan, Y., Gu, X., Slater, L.J., Li, L., Kong, D., Liu, J., Zhang, X., Yan, X. (2022) Tracing anomalies in moisture recycling and transport to two record-breaking droughts over the Mid-to-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. Journal of Hydrology
  32. Kelder, T., Wanders, N., van der Wiel, K., Marjoribanks, T., Slater, L., Wilby, R.L., Prudhomme, C. (2022) Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations – are they unseen or unrealistic? Environmental Research Letters.
  33. Yu, X., Gu, X., Kong, D., Zhang, Q., Cao, Q., Slater, L., Ren, G., Luo, M., Li, J., Liu, J., Cheng, J., Li, Y. (2022) Asymmetrical shift toward less light and more heavy precipitation in an urban agglomeration of East China: Intensification by urbanization. Geophysical Research Letters.
  34. Buechel, M., Slater, L.J., Dadson, S. (2022) Hydrological impact of widespread afforestation in Great Britain using a large ensemble of modelled scenarios. Communications Earth & Environment. doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00334-0
  35. Brunner, M.I. and Slater, L.J. (2022) Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. doi:10.5194/hess-2021-345. 
  36. Kowal, K., Slater, L.J., Van Loon, A.F., Birkel, C. (2022) SEAS5 Skilfully Predicts Late Wet-Season Precipitation in Central American Dry Corridor Excelling in Costa Rica and Nicaragua. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.7514
  37. Li, C., Gu, X., Bai, W., Slater, L.J., Li, J., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, Y. (2021) Asymmetric response of short- and long-duration dry spells to warming during the warm-rain season over Eastern Monsoon China. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127114
  38. Lees, T., Buechel, M., Anderson, B., Slater, L., Reece, S., Coxon, G., and Dadson, S. (2021) Benchmarking Data-Driven Rainfall-Runoff Models in Great Britain: A comparison of LSTM-based models with four lumped conceptual models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/hess-25-5517-2021
  39. Green, D., O’Donnell, E., Johnson, M., Slater, L.J., Thorne, C., Zheng, S., Ka Shun Chan, F. (2021) Green infrastructure: the future of urban flood risk management? WIREs Water. doi:10.1002/wat2.1560
  40. Dwyer, G.K., Cummings, C.R., Rice, S. P., Lancaster, J., Downes, B., Slater, L., Lester, R.E. (2021) Using fractals to describe ecologically relevant patterns in distributions of large rocks in streams. Water Resources Research, 57(7), e2021WR029796. doi:10.1029/2021WR029796
  41. Slater L.J., Anderson A., Buechel M., Dadson S., Han S., Harrigan S., Kelder T., Kowal K., Lees T., Matthews T., Murphy C., Wilby R.L. (2021) Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021
  42. Xiong, J., Yin, J., Guo, S., Slater, L. (2021) Continuity of terrestrial water storage variability and trends across mainland China monitored by the GRACE and GRACE-Follow on satellites. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126308
  43. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Archfield, S., Faulkner, D., Lamb, R., Khouakhi A., Yin, J. (2021) Global changes in 20-year, 50-year and 100-year river floods. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1029/2020GL091824 
  44. Lancaster, J., Rice, S., Slater, L.J., Lester, R.E., Downes, B.J. (2021) Hydrological controls on oviposition habitat are associated with egg-laying phenology of some caddisflies. Freshwater Biology. doi: 10.1111/fwb.13718
  45. Brunner, M., Slater, L.J., Tallaksen, L., Clark, M. (2021) Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review. WIREs Water. doi:10.1002/wat2.1520 
  46. Kelder, T., Müller, M., Slater, L.J., Marjoribanks, T, Wilby, R., Prudhomme, C., Bohlinger, P., Ferranti, L., Nipen, T. (2020) Using UNSEEN trends to detect decadal changes in 100-year precipitation extremes. Climate and Atmospheric Science
  47. Piégay, H., Arnaud, F., Belletti, B., Bertrand, M., Bizzi, S., Carbonneau, P., Dufour, S., Liebault, F., Ruiz-Villanueva, V., Slater, L.J. (2020), Remotely Sensed Rivers in the Anthropocene: State of the Art and Prospects. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
  48. Slater, L.J., Thirel, G., Harrigan, S., Delaigue, O., Hurley, A., Khouakhi, A., Prodoscimi, I., Vitolo, C., and Smith, K. (2019) Using R in hydrology: a review of recent developments and future directions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23, 2939-2963, doi: 10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019
  49. Slater, L.J., Khouakhi, A., Wilby, R. (2019) River channel conveyance capacity adjusts to modes of climate variability  Scientific Reports, 9:12619, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-48782-1
  50. Courty, L., Wilby, R., Hillier, J., Slater, L.J. (2019) Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves at the global scale. Environmental Research Letters, 14(8), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab370a
  51. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Bradley, A., Vecchi G. (2019) A dynamical statistical framework for seasonal streamflow forecasting in an agricultural watershed.  Climate Dynamics, 53(12), 7429-7445, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3794-7
  52. Khouakhi, A., Villarini, G., Zhang, W., Slater, L. (2019) Seasonal predictability of high sea level frequency from Nino3.4 along the U.S. West coast. Advances in Water Resources. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.07.007
  53. Berghuijs, W., Harrigan, s., Molnar, P., Slater, L. , Kirchner, J., (2019)  The relative importance of different flood-generating mechanisms across Europe. Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2019WR024841
  54. Neri, A., Villarini, G., Slater, L.J., Napolitano, F. (2019) On the statistical attribution of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest. Advances in Water Resources, 127(5), 225-236, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.03.019
  55. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Bradley, A. (2019) Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA. Climate Dynamics. 53(12), pp. 7381–7396. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3286-1
  56. Neri, A., Villarini, G., Salvi, K.A., Slater, L.J. and Napolitano, F. (2019) On the decadal predictability of the frequency of flood events across the U.S. Midwest.  International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.5915
  57. Hillier, J. et al. (2019) Demystifying academics to enhance university–business collaborations in environmental science. Geoscience Communication, 2, 1-23; doi:10.5194/gc-2-1-2019
  58. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2018) Enhancing the predictability of seasonal streamflow with a statistical dynamical approach. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2018GL077945
  59. Lutz, S., Popp, A., van Emmerik, T., Gleeson, T., Kalaugher, L., Möbius, K., Mudde, T., Walton, B., Hut, R., Savenije, H., Slater, L.J., Solcerova, A., Stoof, C. and Zink, M. (2018) HESS Opinions: Science in today’s media landscape – challenges and lessons from hydrologists and journalists. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(7).
  60. Villarini, G., Slater, L.J. (2018) Examination of Changes in Annual Maximum Gage Height in the Continental United States Using Quantile Regression. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering (ASCE), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001620
  61. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2017) Evaluating the drivers of seasonal streamflow rates in the U.S. Midwest, Water (MDPI). 9, 695; doi:10.3390/w9090695. 
  62. Slater, L.J., Wilby, R.L. (2017) Measuring the changing pulse of rivers (Perspective article), Science, 357(6351), pp. 552, doi:10.1126/science.aao2441. Reprint.
  63. Zhang, W., Villarini, G., Slater, L.J., Vecchi, G., Bradley, A.A. (2017) Improved ENSO Forecasting using Bayesian Updating and the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0073.1.
  64. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G., Bradley, A.A. (2017) Weighting of NMME temperature and precipitation forecasts across Europe, Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.07.029
  65. Clubb, F.J., Mudd, S.M., Milodowski, D.T, Valters, D.A, Slater, L.J., Hurst, M.D., and Limaye, A.B.S. (2017) Geomorphometric delineation of floodplains and terraces from slope and channel relief thresholds, Earth Surface Dynamics, 5(3), pp.369-385. doi:10.5194/esurf-2017-21.
  66. Villarini, G., Slater, L.J. (2017) Climatology of flooding in the United States, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.123 
  67. Wilby, R.L., Clifford, N.J., De Luca, P., Harrigan, S., Hillier, J.K., Hodgkins, R., Johnson, M.F., Matthews, T.K.R., Murphy, C., Noone, S.J., Parry, S., Prudhomme, C., Rice, S.P., Slater, L.J., Smith, K.A., Wood, P.J. (2017) The “dirty dozen” of freshwater science: Detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIREs) Water, 4:e1209. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1209
  68. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2016) On the impact of gaps on trend detection in extreme streamflow time series, International Journal of Climatology. ISSN: 1097-0088. doi: 10.1002/joc.4954.
  69. Slater, L.J., Villarini, G. (2016) Recent trends in U.S. flood risk, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016. 43(24), pp.12, 428-12,436, doi: 10.1002/2016GL071199. Featured Research Spotlight in Eos.
  70. Slater L.J. (2016) To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales? Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 41(8), pp.1115-1128, ISSN: 0197-9337. Special Issue Stormy Geomorphology, doi: 10.1002/esp.3927
  71. Slater, L.J., Singer, M.B., Kirchner J.W. (2015) Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, 42(2), pp.370-376, ISSN: 0094-8276. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062482. PDF. html. Supplementary material. Media attention: AGUniverse Publication Highlight.
  72. Clubb, F.J., Mudd S.M., Milodowski D.T., Hurst M.D., Slater L.J. (2014) Objective extraction of channel heads from high resolution topographic data, Water Resources Research. 50(5), pp.4283-4304.  doi: 10.1002/2013WR015167.
  73. Slater, L. J. and Singer, M.B. (2013) Imprint of climate and climate change in alluvial riverbeds: Continental United States, 1950-2011, Geology, 41(5), pp.595-598, ISSN: 0091-7613. doi:10.1130/G34070.1 Prize for the best student-led peer-reviewed journal article for 2013.  University of St Andrews Press Release
  74. Piégay, H., Alber, A., Slater, L.J., and Bourdin, L. (2009) Census and typology of braided rivers in the French Alps, Aquatic Sciences, 71(3), 371–388, doi:10.1007/s00027-009-9220-4 (French MSc thesis, Slater, L.J. (2007) Caractérisation des rivières en tresses françaises, ENS-Lyon)

Manuscripts submitted, under review, or in revision

  1. Chai, Y., Zhu, B., Cheng, Y., Hu, X., Berghuijs, W., Borthwick, A., Slater, L. Constrained tropical land sensitivity of temperature to precipitation reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections (under revision)
  2. Chai, Y., Wang, G., Berghuijs, W.R., Li, Y., Yang, Y., Zhu, B., Yu, L., Slater, L.J., Global decline of CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation water use efficiency.
  3. Wei, L., Gu, X., Slater, L., Lai, Y., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, J., Zhang, X. Heavier precipitation in response to longer-lasting tropical cyclones and rapid urbanization over the Yangtze River Delta of eastern China (in revision).
  4. Wang, L., Gu, X., Slater, L., Lai, Y., Zhang, X., Kong, D., Liu, J., Li, J. Indirect and direct impacts of Typhoon In-Fa (2021) on heavy precipitation in inland and coastal areas of China: Synoptic-scale environments and return period analysis (in revision).
  5. Kang, S., Yin, J., Gu, L., Yang, Y., Liu, D., Slater, L. Observation-constrained projection of bivariate flood characteristics and socioeconomic exposure in China (in revision).
  6. Luo, S., Gu, X., Guan, Y., Slater, L., Kong, D., Liu, J., Zhang, X. Hot weather amplifies the urban dry island effect, especially in wetter climates.
  7. Zhang, C., Long, D., Liu, T., Slater, L., Wang, G., Zuo, D., Duan, L., Cui, Y., Cui, Y. Grassland greening and water resource availability may coexist in a warming climate
  8. Anderson, B., Brunner, M., Slater, L., Dadson, S. Elasticity curves describe streamflow sensitivity to precipitation across the entire flow distribution. HESS Discussions (under public review)
  9. Yin, J., Guo, S., Slater, L. Concurrent heatwave-drought hazards increase concerns for socioeconomic inequality and carbon sequestration
  10. Gou, J., Miao, C. Ni, J., Sorooshian, S., Duan, Q., Yan, D., Slater, L., Xu, Z., Borthwick, A., Su, L. , Zhang, Q., Wada, Y., Warming climate and water withdrawals threaten river flow connectivity in China
  11. Gebrechorkos , S., Leyland, J., Slater, L., Wortmann, M., Ashworth, P., Bennett, G. , Boothroyd, R., Cloke, H., Delorme, P., Griffith, H., Hardy, R., Hawker, L., McLelland, S., Neal, J., Nicholas, A., Tatem, A., Vahid, E., Parsons, D., Darby, S. A high-resolution daily global dataset of statistically downscaled CMIP6 models for climate impact analyses
  12. Zhang, X., Gu, X., Slater, L., Dembélé, M., Tosunoglu, F., Liu, J., Zhang, X., Kong, D., Xie, F. Amplification of coupled hot-dry extremes over eastern monsoon China
  13. Yang, Y., Yin, J., Kang, S., Slater, L., Quantifying the drivers of terrestrial drought and water stress impacts on carbon uptake in China
  14. Leenman, A., Slater, L., Dadson, S., Wortmann, M., Boothroyd, R. Quantifying geomorphically effective floods using satellite observations of river mobility
  15. Wu, Y., Miao, C., Slater, L., Fan, X., Chai, Y., Sorooshian, S. Hydrological projections under CMIP5-6: Sources and magnitudes of uncertainty
  16. Fan, X., Miao, C., Zscheischler, J., Slater, L., Wu, Y., Chai, Y., AghaKouchak, A. Risk of compound fire weather under hot-dry conditions: historical changes, drivers, and future projections
  17. Guan, Y., Gu, X., Slater, L., Kong, D., Zhang, X., Li, J. Spatio-temporal variations in global surface soil moisture based on multiple datasets: Intercomparison and climate drivers
  18. Wu, X., Yue, Y., Borthwick, A., Slater, L., Syvitski, J., Bi, N., Yang, Z., Wang, H. Mega-reservoir regulation: contrasting lessons learnt from the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (submitted)