I am a Lecturer at Loughborough University and my research focuses on understanding and predicting changes in floods and fluvial systems in the context of contemporary shifts in climate, agricultural practices and urbanisation. My approach is statistical and computational; I use a combination of climatic and land cover information to disentangle the different drivers of flooding and fluvial change across a variety of climates and land use types. Using ensemble global climate model outputs I also develop probabilistic streamflow forecasts over a range of timescales to assess how floods and fluvial systems may change over time. I have a keen interest in data science and in developing new, interdisciplinary methods for understanding and projecting fluvial and hydro-climatic change.
New paper titled To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales? has just been published in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. doi: 10.1002/esp.39
On Thurs. 11 February 2016, I’ll present “Climatic, hydrologic and geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazards (UK/USA)” for the University of Minnesota Department of Earth Sciences 2015-2016 Seminar Series.
On Wed. 23 March 2016, I will present our new model for “Seasonal discharge forecasting in an agricultural watershed” at the Iowa Flood Center.
Our paper titled Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of flood hazard – which separates and quantifies the effects of trends in streamflow and trends in channel capacity on flood hazards – has just been published in Geophysical Research Letters. The detailed methods can be found in the supplementary materials. An article was recently released on this work on the Flooding and Coastal Erosion Risk management network (FCERM.net).
Our AGU 2014 Fall Meeting Poster, based on our GRL paper. Slater, L.J., Singer, M.B., and Kirchner, J.W. The poster appeared in AGU FM 2014 Session H51L, Theories and Methods for Nonstationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis, Friday 19 December 2014, MW Poster Hall, Poster #H51L-0773. Click here to download the full-size PDF.
Delighted to have received a British Society for Geomorphology Early Career Grant for a project entitled ‘To what extent have changes in river channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales?’
Outline: Freshwater flood damages have increased dramatically over recent decades, and are of concern to millions of people living in flood-prone areas across the world. Most studies assume that trends in flood hazard are caused exclusively by changes in hydrology and climate. However, widespread anthropogenic influences to river systems have caused changes in the capacity of river channels, which can also modify flood hazard.
The aim of this project is to investigate how geomorphic changes in channel capacity have contributed to changing flood hazards, in comparison with hydro-climatic trends in the frequency of flood flows, in England and Wales. The grant will allow me to supplement data provided by the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales with field trips to obtain quantitative and qualitative channel characteristics to understand the causes of geomorphic change at each site; and to disseminate my work at the AGU Fall meeting in San Francisco, later this year.